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Get ready for the cold

OK,so far this winter, it has been relatively across much of the US, but, change is on the way. The computer models put the polar vortex, where the cold air flows to, over the great Lakes. Also, arctic -70F air is seeping into Alaska from Siberia. This cold air will flow towards the polar vortex, and will continue, going into the US. Areas from Oklahoma could see extremely cold air, with highs in Nebraska around 5F and lows around -15F some days. New York could see one of the coldest moths on record, with multiple days having highs below 0F. It is still a little too early to tell, but if this verifies,many places in the US would experience their coldest February ever.
dewy
 
I hope that's not true.
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Or it will be miiiiiighty chilly at my house. I'm trying to keep the heat reeeally low to keep my heating bill down.
 
Pah! You call that cold? Try living in Moscow:

5 day outlook

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Incidently, I can't see any sign of cold across the US. The American GFS model shows it mild all the way:

Wetterzentrale GFS

Look at the 850hPa temperatures: the -10C line is where it starts to get cold.
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Alvin Meister @ Jan. 18 2006,4:33)]Pah! You call that cold? Try living in Moscow:

5 day outlook

smile_n_32.gif


Incidently, I can't see any sign of cold across the US. The American GFS model shows it mild all the way:

Wetterzentrale GFS

Look at the 850hPa temperatures: the -10C line is where it starts to get cold.
First of all, the American GFS doesn't handle Siberian air that well. It predicted a high of -20F in Yukon,AK yesterday, but the actual high was -45F. The cold air is bottling up in Alaska, and should be released in the next few weeks by the polar vortex. Here is the Canadian model, which handles arctic air very well. It shows the cross polar flow strengthened, which is most likely the first signs of the Alaskan and Siberian air being tapped.
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdf_50.gif
Also, look at Moscow's ten day forecast. It shows them rapidly warming up, which means the cold air that is there now is heading towards Alaska.
http://www.weather.com/outlook....h_10day
So, looking at all of this, I think an arctic outbreak is in store for much of the Eastern US.
 
It's already getting colder in Nashville! This past weekend we had average temps in the seventies, but today I got a snowday! And it almost never snows here!

-D. Lybrand
 
Here is a forecast by the GFS showing the cold air surging southward around February 2.
gfs_slp_360m.gif

If you are inside of those blue lines, you will generally have highs around 45F near the 540 line. If you are near the 516 line, you could have highs around 10F or lower.
 
That's a long way away though! I wouldn't take anything the GFS says after 144hours with a big pinch of salt, but you never know.
We shall see
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[b said:
Quote[/b] (Alvin Meister @ Jan. 18 2006,5:58)]That's a long way away though! I wouldn't take anything the GFS says after 144hours with a big pinch of salt, but you never know.
We shall see  
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Generaly, yes, but it has been consistent on this same outcome for about 3 days now. We'll just have to wait and see.
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  • #10
Im hibernating!!!!! No really i am, first it was ice rain and everything was a solid sheet of ice and going out the front door was like skating. Then within 1 hr after that it turned to heavey wet snow and we got majorly dumped on and now its extremly bitterly cold out once again, i hate this up and down cold and wamrish crud.. But i belive we aint seen the worst of ol man winter its just getting started.
 
  • #11
I checked local temps in Alaska, and some area are at -60F! More of the computer models are now predicting some of that air reaching North Dakota around February 1st. Get ready for the cold, because it will be coming soon. If anybody remembers the outbreak of Feb. 1951, this could be very similar. In Feb. 1951, Houston,TX had 3 straight days with highs 20F or lower!
dewy
 
  • #12
I saw on the weather channel - can't remember the name of the city - the coldest continuously habitated city. From Dec. 1 - Mar. 1 the temperature never gets above 0 Fahrenheit. Somewhere in Russia it was.

I hate to see the possibility of a deep freeze. I'm in NW WI and the winter has been more like Missouri, where I lived for several years. We had some below 0 temps back in early December, but since around mid-Dec. it's been fairly mild - for WI. Not a whole lot of snow either. It seems the highs have been anywhere from 25-35 F for over a month now. Oh well, I guess we're due for some -50 F wind chills.
 
  • #14
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Alvin Meister @ Jan. 21 2006,12:48)]Looks mild to me!

28th Jan
First of all, you are still using GFS, which doesn't handle cold air well. Also, Alaska is getting colder, with some areas having temps around -60F, which is only 8 degrees from the all time record! Second of all, Alaska is still getting colder as air from the North Pole and Siberia are bleeding into it. Meanwhile, the snow cover across the US is getting larger, which will allow for less modification when the arctic air finally comes. Finally, the cold air that is continuing to bottle up in Alaska continues to get colder, and as we all now, cold air is more dense than warm air. This will change the current zonal flow into more of a wetter and colder pattern. It should get to North Dakota by around Feb.5, but we will just have to wait and see.
dewy
 
  • #15
Why do you say GFS doesn't handle cold air well? GFS and ECMWF both spotted the trend for cold air to flood into western Europe next Thursday/Friday about 4 days ago.

Massive cold pooling is no good through unless the synopics come together to expand or move it. Is GEM still forecasting that large high pressure cell to move the cold air south?
 
  • #16
Well I don't know what any of you are talking about. The cold weather seems totally gone here in Washington - the cherries are even blooming! That's spring in my book.
~Joe
 
  • #17
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Alvin Meister @ Jan. 21 2006,3:04)]Why do you say GFS doesn't handle cold air well? GFS and ECMWF both spotted the trend for cold air to flood into western Europe next Thursday/Friday about 4 days ago.

Massive cold pooling is no good through unless the synopics come together to expand or move it. Is GEM still forecasting that large high pressure cell to move the cold air south?
It handles it well out to 5 days, but after that, it is VERY inaccurate. On Jan. 10th, it forecasted that today, Jan. 21st, that we would have a high of 32F, but our actual high today was 69F. So as you can see, it is very inaccurate in foecasting coldweather past 5 days. ECMWF is also called the Euro, and it handles cold air alot better than the GFS does,especially past 5 days.

Seedjar, if you live out West, you will be under the ridge at least through Feb., so you will continue to have mild weather.
dewy
 
  • #18
Its 83 and sunny here today, I think I got a bit of a sunburn on my face. I don't really understand why you folks up north are always talking about the cold snowy frigid weather - what do you expect after all it is winter. If its that bad, pack up your stuff and move down here, I had the air conditioner on in the car today and can still go into my backyard and pick tomatoes and peppers.
 
  • #19
Don't tell them that! According to our news channels Arizona (southern parts specifically) are already the highest growth areas in the USA. I say, stay where you are. That goes for you darn snowbirds too!! If you want the winters here, stay for the summers!!!
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  • #20
[b said:
Quote[/b] (buster1 @ Jan. 21 2006,4:01)]Its 83 and sunny here today, I think I got a bit of a sunburn on my face....I had the air conditioner on in the car today and can still go into my backyard and pick tomatoes and peppers.
I know it is nicer in Kissimee than here, but do not spread the news too much, we might see an invasion!

[b said:
Quote[/b] ]I say, stay where you are. That goes for you darn snowbirds too!! If you want the winters here, stay for the summers!!!

Still, it has been hard to adjust to the summer heat (compared to the Puget Sound's mild everything), be prepared if you do not listen to Adnedarn's advice!
 
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